College Survey Shows Trump and Casey Leading in PA

EMERSON COLLEGE POLLING/The HILL SURVEY — A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in Pennsylvania finds 45% of voters support former President Trump in a 2024 potential presidential election, while 43% support President Biden. Twelve percent are undecided. Since last month, Trump’s support has decreased by three points, from 48% to 45%, while Biden’s support has increased two points, from 41% to 43%.

“Pennsylvania independent voters break for Biden over Trump 41% to 35%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “There is also a gender divide: men break for Trump over Biden 50% to 41% while women break slightly for Biden over Trump, 44% to 42%.”

With independent candidates included on a ballot test, 42% support Trump, 37% Biden, 8% support Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% Cornel West, 1% Jill Stein, and 12% are undecided.

In a hypothetical matchup between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump leads 49% to 40%, 11% are undecided. Between Trump and California Governor Gavin Newsom, 48% support Trump, while 33% support Newsom. Eighteen percent are undecided.

Voters were asked if President Biden’s age raises serious doubts about voting for him in 2024, and separately if former President Donald Trump’s criminal indictments raise serious concerns about voting for him. Biden’s age raises concerns for 64% of Pennsylvania voters, while Trump’s indictments raise concerns for 57% of voters.

“Independent voters are more concerned about Trump’s indictments than Biden’s age: 61% of independents say Trump’s indictments raise serious concerns while 53% of independents find Biden’s age to raise serious concerns about voting for the president in 2024,” Kimball noted.

Pennsylvania voters were also asked if they think the state is generally moving in the right direction, or if things are on the wrong track. Nearly half of voters (49%) think the state is on the wrong track, while 35% believe things are moving in the right direction. Fifteen percent have no opinion.

The economy is viewed as the top issue for 40% of voters, followed by healthcare (11%), immigration (11%), threats to democracy (10%), crime (8%), education (6%), and housing affordability (6%).

In a U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey and Republican David McCormick, 49% support Casey, 39% McCormick, and 13% are unsure.

  • Independent Pennsylvania voters support Casey over McCormick 48% to 27%, while 25% are undecided.
  • A majority of voters (61%) who think Pennsylvania is moving in the wrong direction support McCormick, while 83% of voters who think it is moving in the right direction support Casey.
  • Casey’s support is strongest among voters whose highest degree of education is a postgraduate degree, at 60%, or associates or college degree at 50%.
  • Voters whose highest educational attainment is high school or less are split: 42% support Casey and 42% support McCormick.

Voters were asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Casey, McCormick, Senator John Fetterman, and Governor Josh Shapiro.

Shapiro is viewed most favorably by Pennsylvania voters at 59% favorable (31% very favorable, 28% somewhat favorable), while 37% have an unfavorable view of the Governor (21% not too favorable, 16% not at all favorable). Senator Fetterman is viewed favorably by 46% of voters, while 48% view him unfavorably.

Casey is viewed favorably by half (50%) of voters, while 42% have an unfavorable view of the incumbent senator. Republican candidate McCormick is viewed favorably by 38% of voters, while 32% have an unfavorable view of him. Thirty percent have never heard of McCormick.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Pennsylvania survey was conducted February 14-16, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (PA S.O.S.).

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and a consumer list of emails (both provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.

This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.

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