Long-range forecast this winter shows colder temperatures closer to holidays
STATE COLLEGE – While many people are traveling less and working or going to school remotely during the pandemic; winter travel worries may not be top of mind. But, AccuWeather’s Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok says there may be travel woes.
He says they are taking a look at last year’s forecast in their predictions for this winter, “We ended up averaging about over four degrees above normal for the December through February time period, which is ridiculously high. We had only about six inches of snow in the region so we had a lack of snow storms in the area, a lot more rain than snow.”
Pastelok says they are seeing what they call a “bookend winter” for the months ahead, “I think that’s what you’re going to see. You’re going to get these cold shots, they come in for a few days and then it warms up, and then it gets cold. I think we’re still back and forth all the way into December but the colder air may take over a little bit more later into December near the holidays.”
He says analyzing past weather patterns helps to predict what conditions will unfold this winter, which arrives December 21st, “We’re probably going to get more snow than last year, I think that’s a given there. The thing is, it still may not be an exceptionally cold, wintry, type of season.”
“Although, it may hint at that here at the end of fall and early winter, because we’re going to have kind of a bookend winter. We’ll have a little bit at the beginning and a little bit at the end, but in the middle, we may have an extended January thaw going on” he said.
Pastelok says the polar vortex and La Nina impacted cold temperatures last year and he’s not seeing those same types of patterns this year, although it’s still early to tell. He says he believes there will still be a lull in temperatures in late March and April where there will be a slow rise in temperatures leading into spring.
Pastelok was a recent guest on WKOK’s Sunrise program; his full interview is online at wkok.com
